Across the entire Tennessee Valley we’re in a drought of some degree. TVA’s Scott Fiedler said that the area here is distinguished as a severe drought by the National Weather Service. That translates into what the Tennessee Valley Authority depends on to fill up Lake Chatuge, depending on Mother Nature.
“We haven’t gotten the normal rainfall and usually we get 40 percent or 60 percent of our runoff to fill these lakes in January through April,’’ Fiedler said. "Right now we’re at 45 percent of normal runoff that we use to fill these lakes. That’s why the lakes are not up to their normal levels for this time of year, usually by Memorial Day and June 1, that’s when we try to have all of them up to their highest level, and this year we don’t anticipate being able to do that because we just haven’t had the rainfall to fill them up.
"So, we’re trying to help the public know that’s why these lake levels are down. They can still get out and use the lakes and enjoy them. They’re going to look a little different, more shoreline and some mud flats," Fiedler said.
Monday, May 18, the observed reservoir elevation at 8 a.m. was at 1,922.75 feet above sea level; tailwater elevation, 1,802.88. Fiedler said that there is a TVA lake information app that people can go to and use to get up-to-date information on lake levels and where the elevations are.
Safety on Lake Chatuge is what is most important this summer. Trees that would normally be below the surface of the water, perhaps, won’t be. There can be stumps or rocks or sandbars and shallow areas that people are not used to seeing at this time of the year in springtime. Things like kids diving from the shore or swinging out across the water holding a rope to drop into the lake need to be checked first.
"The public needs to know that the lakes are not as deep as they normally are and that’s due to a lack of rainfall,’’ Fiedler said. "I know you just had a big rain event, three inches of rain last week, but that doesn’t change the effects of a persistent severe drought because the ground is so dry.”
Senior Manager of TVA’s River Forecast Center Darrell Gwinn explained that we didn’t get a lot of runoff from that, and so that runoff is that percentage of rainfall that makes its way into a ditch or a creek and eventually flows into the lake, and it’s so dry right now, the vegetation comes out at this time of year and the temperature starts heating up the ground.
“It’s like a sponge,’’ Gwinn said. "It just soaked up all the rainfall that you had last week that would normally trickle into the lake. For Lake Chatuge, once we get into late May and into the summer, there will be a lower percentage of runoff from each rainfall event and that’s why TVA knows that more than likely Chatuge reservoir will not be reaching summer pool.
"This is happening at any TVA reservoir, Hiwassee, Blue Ridge, Nottely, which like Chatuge are tributary storage reservoirs and it’s not just a localized problem, this is across the Tennessee Valley. Reservoirs that are stemming off from the Tennessee River, they also would be lower. Even the mainstream Tennessee River, the upper main river, is not at summer pool levels, and those don’t even have to fill up very much compared to what some of these do. This hasn’t happened in probably 40 years or so,” Gwinn said.
So, what’s the prognosis here in our Blue Ridge Mountains pool?
Gwinn said that in TVA’s talks with the National Weather Service, a good partner to the TVA, they helped them to understand this, and that conditions were going to exist this spring. ‘’We actually started trying to fill these lakes up starting in February and we knew it was going to be difficult to fill them,’’ Gwinn said. ‘’We’re expecting the drought to still persist into the summer.’’
In a recent magazine publication from Blue Ridge Mountain EMC, an article focused on what to expect during the upcoming hurricane season and a developing El Niño. Gwinn said that hopefully this El Niño will start to transition in the summertime and start leading to above normal rainfall and that will help us come out of this drought into late summer, into fall.
‘’So, we’re talking about August, September, October, November, that’s when we really expect to begin seeing above normal rainfall and drought conditions improving. There is some good news in the future based on what meteorologists know on past history. They take trends that have happened in past El Niños and look at that history. They’ve helped us understand,’’ Gwinn said.
Water, how is that going to work?
‘’We’re going to be watching that and monitoring what those drought conditions are and they update every week and we kind of monitor that for operational decisions to understand if it’s improving, or goes away and we come out of this. Then, we know kind of what to expect through the winter time and whether to have the lakes down to provide that flood storage they’re designed to do. We will be monitoring that through the transition into the fall.
TVA’s operational decisions include having enough water to move cargo down the rivers. That is a critical infrastructure, to maintain navigation through the system and on the main river.
"That’s one of our primary objectives. We have to maintain and ensure we are able to keep that going, and so that’s why we have to use a little bit of this water from these storage reservoirs. We’ve got to keep the navigation industry open, we’ve got to keep that water quality and the rivers flowing. We’re going to use the amount that we have making sure that we’re not wasting the water. We’re trying to be as efficient as we can with it and ensure we get all things covered. Five and a half million people depend on the river for drinking water, so we’ve got to use these storage reservoirs to ensure that water flows for people downstream,’’ Gwinn said.
Advice from the TVA is coming to a community that enjoys recreation on the lakes and to businesses like the marinas for continued public safety.
"There may be some sand banks or stumps or logs that could be exposed, so we don’t want any type of boating issues,’’ Fiedler said. "We want to just make sure those Marina owners and businesses who depend on tourism know that we’re working hard to keep as much water as possible and just a minimum flow to ensure that we have the drinking water and navigation. We’re monitoring and we’re doing everything possible. We’re just trying to hope for rain.
"Know now that come June we may be drawing the lakes down just a little bit more to ensure navigation on the rivers, water quality and drinking water for the people downstream,’’ Fiedler said.
TVA’s message is that the lake is still open, the drought is persistent, take care on the water.
“Have fun out there, but just be aware that lake levels are lower there and it could cause a safety issue. So, parents, listen up if you’ve got the kids out swimming. Make sure that they know the depth of the water first, don’t let them just dive in. Maybe, get in first, check it out because we don’t want any injuries. If you’re a boater, a lot of folks just get into the boat and know where they want to go fish,’’ Fiedler said.
Lake elevations are available and easy to find at: TVA.com.